Why Adrien Broner Will Lose to Mikey Garcia on Saturday

This Saturday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the anticipated matchup between Adrien Broner (33-2, 24 KO’s), and the undefeated Mikey Garcia (36-0, 30, KO’s) will go down. Win or lose, Broner is usually must-see TV. And given how competitive Garcia is, this fight is sure to please fans.

Adrien Broner’s biggest problem has always been himself. This camp, however, Broner looks to be in a better physical and mental state than what we’ve seen from him in recent years. He has been in the supportive company of his on-again, off-again mentor, Floyd Mayweather Jr., who is helping promote the event. He looks to be on track for making the 140-pound weight limit (which helps him avoid paying $500K to Garcia for coming in overweight) while training with positive influences like a seasoned partner, Jamel Herring. It’s a much different look from the legal trouble, or attention-seeking nonsense that we’ve come to expect from him on social media.

That said, Broner is still going to lose. And that will come as a shock to many because they perceive him to have advantages over Garcia that he really doesn’t posses.

SIZE

Broner is assumed to have an advantage here because he has been fighting at the 140-pound limit longer than Garcia has (although I don’t expect to see a difference of more than five pounds on fight night after both fighters rehydrate). While that is true, Broner is not the type of fighter who really uses his size to his advantage. He fires pot-shots instead of leaning on opponents to drain their energy. Rather than aggressively stalking his opponents, he simply follows them around the ring looking to score counters.

This plays into Garcia’s hands as he is known to fight well while going backward or forward. And when he does come forward, he’s pumping his jab to create opportunities rather than just waiting for them.

POWER

In Broner’s last nine fights (including bouts set at weights slightly above 140 pounds) he has only two knockouts. He isn’t really known for his power past the 135-pound limit.

EFFORT

Broner is a naturally gifted athlete, and he has relied on those gifts more than he has relied on fundamentals. Opting to put training on the back-burner when he had fights coming up supports the idea that he has solely relied on those natural gifts. And when those gifts fail to get the job done, Broner has been nonchalant about it as long as his checks have cleared.

In contrast, Garcia has relied on fundamentals. He takes his time to land the perfect shot when he has his opponents hurt. He keeps his hands up in a tight guard and is rarely caught out of position to take a punch. He blocks a good amount of his opponents punches so that they can’t get into a rhythm. He goes to the body. He throws combinations. And he shows up to take opponents out.

For those reasons, I’m predicting a unanimous decision in favor of Garcia this weekend. Feel free to debate this one on twitter with @GodHamgod.

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