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UFC Sao Paulo: Best Bets

This weekend the UFC is making their return to Sao Paulo, Brazil with a 14-fight fight card with a main event that you will not want to miss. Headlining this fight card are heavy hitters Thiago “Marreta” Santos and “Ya Boi” Eryk Anders who is taking this fight on just a weeks’ notice. Much like last weeks’ fight card value is hard to come by when it comes to wagering on the fights. Nevertheless, here are the best bets for UFC Sao Paulo.

Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Sam Alvey (-330)

Sam Alvey makes his return to the octagon to take on the legend Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in his own backyard. Since Alvey’s move to 205lbs. he has revitalized his career coming off back-to-back wins over Marcin Prachnio (first-round KO) and Gian Villante (Split Decision). It is always frustrating when wagering on Alvey due to his inactivity inside the octagon. He is not the fighter that is going to overwhelm his opponent with volume of strikes but what Alvey does well is land with precision (lands 46% of his strikes) and power (19 knockouts). The advantage in this fight for Alvey is that Nogueira throws even less volume than he does (lands only 2.35 strikes per minute).

Nogueira is at the tail-end of his hall of fame MMA career at the age of 42-years-old. Nogueira hasn’t fought since Nov 19, 2016, almost two years ago in a fight where he was knocked out by Ryan Bader in the third round. Nogueira hasn’t won an MMA fight in over two years dating back to May 14, 2016. He is just 1-3 in his last four fights getting knocked out in 50% of those fights. This is a farewell fight for Nogueira as he should be retiring in front of his home crowd after this one. Expect a low-output striking affair between these two with Alvey landing the much stronger shots en-route to either a knockout victory or lopsided decision where even Brazilian judges can’t even get it wrong.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-705)

With originally-scheduled opponent Belal Muhammad withdrawing due to injury, Elizeu Zaleski will now take on UFC-newcomer Luigi Vandramini on just about a weeks’ notice. This is about as lopsided as a fight can possibly get. Santos has looked great as of late coming off a fantastic knockout performance of Sean Strickland and rattling off five-straight wins. Vandramini on the other hand, is an undefeated 7-0 Brazilian prospect. Being undefeated is impressive on its own but his seven opponents had a combined record of 6-3 with six of his opponents being winless. Also, Vandramini is a natural lightweight who is taking a fight at welterweight against a much bigger foe as Santos is 5’11”. This should be a rather easy win for Santos and he should make it six wins in a row in hopes to getting a shot at a top-10 opponent next.

Markos / Rodriguez Fight Goes To Decision (-280)

The Canadian Randa Markos is coming into hostile territory to take UFC newcomer and undefeated Brazilian Marina Rodriguez. Markos is as tough as they come in the Strawweight division. She is a tough fight for any opponent although she hasn’t had a ton of luck lately alternating wins and losses. Markos has fought the best of the best, but she has never been able to stay consistent enough to be a contender in a very deep division. Markos is taking on a very dangerous UFC newcomer in Marina Rodriguez who shined on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil. Rodriguez is coming off a very impressive knockout win over Maria Oliveira in the first round. The only downfall for Rodriguez is the quality of opponents that she has faced in her career. This fight can go one of two ways, Markos can fight her fight inside of the clinch using her trips and takedowns to get the fight on the mat where she can grind out Rodriguez to a decision. The other way would be very similar to the fight that Markos just had with Nina Ansaroff where Rodriguez will keep the fight on the feet and pick Markos apart from a distance to get the decision victory. Either way neither of these two are not getting a win inside the distance as both fighters have went the distance a combined 16 times in 25 fights. Expect a normal Markos back and forth fight for 15 full minutes.

These fights have a lot of juice as most will say but if you parlay these three plays together you can get it at a great price of (+102). In three arguably “give me” fights, that is a great price point to wager. Those are the best bets for this weekend’s fight card in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Stay tuned for The Main Event Breakdown coming later this week. Also, don’t forget to go follow me on twitter @GarrettK_MMA. As always wager responsibly and best of luck!


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